What happens if Poilievre loses again?

Polling analyst calls it "unfathomable" that Poilievre could lose.

“You can’t just ‘own the libs’ or ‘own the cons’ while your representative is literally voting against your best interests,”

Bonnie Critchley’s amazing interview on CBC’s Power & Politics was something to behold. Critchley declared that she intends to win Battle River–Crowfoot’s  August 18th byelection because, in her words, her riding of deep, rural Alberta is tired of being used. In her view, Poilievre is using the riding as a free ticket back into Parliament.

Critchley portrays herself as “right‑of‑centre,” but stresses that Canadian politics do not mirror the United States. She rejects the notion of a two‑party system as “leak‑over” from south of the border and warns that “team politics are very damaging.”

Perhaps her views are a sign of change to come. The conservatives would have won two of the last three elections if Canada had a multiple member constituency, or a proportional based system.

Dónal Gill, PhD in Political Science, and assistant professor at Concordia University thinks that Poilievre is safe for now, but that “he’s on slightly less stable ground in the last few weeks.

“The Carney government has been more right wing than what any of us expected, and Poilievre has had trouble adjusting to that.” Gill believes that many people want a “public addressing” of what could have been done differently, but that Poilievre is hoping his actions demonstrate his change of heart, such as his appearance on CBC recently.

Critchley, a military veteran, was only the second woman to serve as an armoured crewman in her unit and she joined her father as a gunnery team in the Royal Canadian Armoured Corps– the first father-daughter team in Canada. Today she is criss-crossing the nearly 53,000‑square‑kilometre riding, knocking on doors and shaking hands. She insists that if Poilievre beats her, “it won’t be by much.” Asked whether her goal is to dethrone the Conservative leader, she didn’t back down. She’s planning to win. “He is not going to be our voice in Parliament. What I’m hoping to accomplish is keeping a voice for Battle River–Crowfoot in Battle River–Crowfoot,” she said.

“Bonnie Critchley is going to get lost amongst the 199 other people on that ballot who are not Pierre Poilievre,” Gill said.

The riding—known simply as Crowfoot before 2015—has been held by one conservative banner or another since 1997. Damien Kurek captured 82.8 per cent of the vote in 2025 before resigning to give Poilievre a seat. Considering the idea that she could possibly win, even when there are 200 names on the ballot, is virtually untenable.

“I dunno what it would take for Poilievre to lose. It’s unfathomable,” Philippe J. Fournier, the writer of 338 Canada, and polling expert said. He noted that the media diet of those who live in Battle River-Crowfoot are not the types who watch CBC’s Power & Politics. As much as Ms. Critchley is making waves, he said it would be “tremendous” if she got 10 per cent of the vote. In his view (and probably for the conservatives as well) a win is a win.

However, the National Post and Calgary Herald have written articles about her as well, so it’s not necessarily accurate to say that none of their media diet has spoken about her. Nonetheless, it would take what is tantamount to a miracle for her to win.

As for what happens to Poilievre afterwards, Fournier questions whether we’ll talk about the byelection percentages again after it's over. It’s more likely that when Parliament starts up again in September, the news cycle will move on and the subject won’t come up again until Poilievre’s leadership review in January. The bigger problem is that his personal numbers are dragging the Conservative party down.

“He was so toxic to non-conservative voters that Mark Carney, himself a progressive conservative, killed the NDP and (much of) the Bloc.” This seems to be leaving many people in the political world wondering– if Poilievre is so toxic to non-conservatives, is it smart to leave him as leader of the party?

“If you look at polling, he is in decline amongst the Canadian electorate in general, but he remains popular amongst the conservative die-hards,” Gill said.

It’s somewhat shocking that someone who had the potential to win the largest majority in Canadian history, who went on to lose to a tired, old, and somewhat reviled government, stayed on as leader.

In any other world, the Conservative party would have thrown the person who did that out the window. When Erin O'Toole won the popular vote but lost the seat count in 2021, he was thrown out with a propulsive vigour. Poilievre lost both the popular vote and the seat count, and yet has spent the past three months purporting this as a great victory. No one since Mulroney has achieved such a great polling result, he loves to tout. However, in 1988, Mulroney won a majority and the Liberals were left in his proverbial dust.

Ironically, within four years of that overwhelming victory, Mulroney was so mired in controversy that he didn’t finish his mandate. It turned out that history would vindicate John Turner when he railed against free trade, saying “With one signature of a pen… you’ve thrown us into the north-south influence of the United States and will reduce us to a colony of the United States, because when the economic levers go, the political independence is sure to follow.” He followed this by saying that the Canadian leader will become the governor of the 51st state.

Comparing yourself to Mulroney, disgraced and tossed out of Parliament, might not be the image you want to summon while attempting to keep your leadership. Mulroney’s disgrace was so much that it ruptured the conservative party in two, and birthed the Reformers.

Maybe we’ll see a repeat of history soon.

So what is Poilievre thinking? What are the conservatives thinking? The space they occupy has been subsumed by a highly charismatic and extremely skilled Liberal party, who have pivoted to the right of center, causing confusion within their own ranks. The unpopularity of Poilievre is pulling the Conservatives downwards. But what choice do they have? Who else is waiting in the wings? Who is the leader supposed to be if not Poilievre? Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, and Tim Houston, the premier of Nova Scotia are clearly both hoping it’s going to be them.

Poilievre will likely win, but if he doesn’t it is likely because of exactly what Bonnie Critchley said on Power & Politics.

“He didn’t show up for his constituents, so they fired him. He assumes we’re gonna vote him in… We’re 3000 kilometers west, you think he’s gonna show up here ever?

“We are being used, and myself and my neighbours are upset about this.”

We’ll find out on August 18th how upset they really are.