Carney is About to Have a Rude Awakening
Canada's powerful and independent judiciary, and the decentralized nature of the country is going to be an impassable wall for the unitary-minded leader-- and he doesn't seem to be aware of it.
Don’t be fooled by the calm demeanour and navy blue banker suit—Mark Carney’s government has already shown its hand. In just weeks, his Liberals have proposed legislation that would make Stephen Harper blush. The progressive brand may still be on the box, but inside there seems to be a growing appetite for control, surveillance, and deregulation dressed in technocratic language.
Mark Carney is currently enjoying a honeymoon period as Prime Minister. His government is experiencing the highest approval ratings the Liberals have seen in years, possibly the highest since Justin Trudeau’s favorable handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Carney's approval rating currently sits at 57%, slightly below Trudeau’s 63% post-election rating in 2015. Despite this, the electorate seems to view Carney’s government as entirely new, even though the Liberal Party's composition remains largely unchanged from Trudeau’s era. Having won 169 seats, just nine more than the previous parliament's 160, most incumbents remain, with minor shifts—losses on the east coast balanced by gains on the west.
The electorate's perception of change is understandable given the Liberal government's early actions clearly signaling a new direction. A prime example is Bill C-2, recently introduced by the Liberals. Michael Geist told the Globe and Mail that this bill would likely go to court if it remained in its current form, and it is highly unlikely to make it through committee without significant changes. These violations are surprising to see from a Liberal Party that has billed itself as a “progressive party” for the past decade. Trudeau was certainly left of center, and his government, flawed as it was, had some values that it believed in– a rarity to see in Canadian politics. In three months, the Liberal Party is completely reformed in the image of Mark Carney, who seems to be an old school progressive conservative in the guise of a modern Liberal.
Historically, the Liberals excel at campaigning and have maintained power by skillfully adapting their image. Describing themselves as "Canada’s natural governing party," their dominance is punctuated by brief Conservative interludes. From Wilfrid Laurier’s lengthy tenure to Mackenzie King’s 22-year reign—with a brief intermission under R.B. Bennett—followed by Pearson, Pierre Trudeau, interrupted by Mulroney, and then Chrétien, and Martin; the Liberals have been Canada’s default choice for governance. Recent history, from Stephen Harper’s nine years to Trudeau’s decade in power, illustrates this ongoing cycle. Carney’s leadership, if sustained, will extend the Liberals' current rule to at least fourteen consecutive years, and who knows if they may win another election afterwards.
Carney’s approach, though appearing novel, is actually a rebranding of ideas previously promoted by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, albeit presented with greater charisma and a calm, composed nature that appeals to Canadians, especially confronted with a collapsing American democracy. Carney’s ambitious plans to fast-track resource development face significant hurdles due to legal and Indigenous jurisdictional realities. Recent court decisions and Canada’s adoption of the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, as highlighted in an article by Christopher Curtis and myself published in the Rover, suggest these efforts will encounter substantial resistance, especially on treaty lands across Alberta.
Additionally, Carney’s government has introduced troubling privacy violations through bills C-2 and C-4. Bill C-2, ostensibly to bolster border security, would empower authorities to intercept and retain mail, potentially expelling asylum seekers arbitrarily. Bill C-4, promoted as a measure to enhance affordability, risks overriding provincial privacy laws. These legislative moves demonstrate Carney’s centralized vision of governance—portraying himself as an economic and moral authority uniquely capable of steering Canada to prosperity. This overt centralization of control diverges from traditional Canadian political norms, typically marked by quiet but firm party discipline.
It also shows a marked lack of understanding about the de-centralized nature of Canadian politics. We live in what is easily described as the most decentralized federation in the world, and Carney is interested in being a unitarian leader who centralized power within the mind of himself.
While Carney’s authoritative style has initially resonated positively, his attempts to push controversial measures through Parliament will likely face intense scrutiny and resistance from courts and opposition parties, challenging his vision of strong, unilateral leadership. Ultimately, Carney may find himself confronting significant obstacles, potentially leading to a substantial reassessment by Canadians of his leadership style and goals.
His ambition is soon to be faced with the reality of a decentralized union, and a highly independent and stable court. Reality may be harsher on this government than Carney realizes, as his promises have consistently been lofty, exaggerated, and possibly misinformed.